Sunday, July 27, 2014

Schwab ETF Assets Up 30% Year on Year

Charles Schwab’s second quarter ETF Investor Snapshot, released Tuesday, reported that exchange-traded-fund assets custodied at the firm at the end of June reached $217 billion, a 30% increase over June 2013.

According to the report, second quarter ETF flows amounted to $5.2 billion, up 9% from the first quarter.

Equity funds represented 70% of the flows, well up from 25% in the first three months of the year. Of this, 39% went to U.S. equity and 31% to international equity.

Fixed income accounted for just 4% of ETF flows in the second quarter, a big drop from the previous quarter, which the report ascribed to large outflows from short-term bond funds.

The ETF Investor Shapshot is based on analysis of ETFs on the Charles Schwab platform, regardless of ETF or distributor.

The report said retail traders enrolled in Schwab Trading Services captured 11% of the ETF flows in the July 2013 to June 2014 period, up from just 6% in the previous year.

However, retail investors’ share of the flows fell to 43% from 47% in the same period.

RIA clients also saw their share of flows fall slightly, to 46% from 47% a year earlier.

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Wednesday, July 23, 2014

That was fast. New record for stock market

SP 500 12PM NEW YORK (CNNMoney) That was fast. The S&P 500 cruised to a new intraday record right out of the gate. It's yet another sign that investors, at least in the United States, aren't that worried about global conflicts hurting big companies.

1. The numbers: The S&P 500 traded as high as 1,989.29 and is on track to celebrate its 26th record close this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average drifted lower at the open, but has since trimmed its losses. The Dow remains just shy of its intraday record of 17,151.56 that was set only last week. Boosted by upbeat tech earnings, the Nasdaq edged 0.4% higher. All three major indexes ended in the green Tuesday.

Here's what to watch today:

2. Geopolitical jitters ease: Major indexes across Europe inched higher after EU officials stopped short of imposing tough economic sanctions against Russia.

"I think some of the macro geopolitical concerns have, at least for the moment, moved back to the back burner," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for Wunderlich Securities, referring to violent conflicts in Israel and Ukraine. "It's a market that's shifted its focus over the last 24 hours back to earnings."

Still, the relief could be short-lived as Europe demanded Russia's "full and immediate" cooperation over Ukraine or risk losing access to European finance, defense equipment and energy technology. Also, Ukraine said a pair of its fighter jets were shot down in rebel held territory on Wednesday, underscoring the continued tensions.

Germany's Dax gained 0.2%, while Russia's Micex index slipped 0.3%, taking its losses for the year to nearly 7%.

Asian markets largely advanced. Indonesia markets were helped by news that former Jakarta governor Joko Widodo had won the presidential election.

3. Big-name earnings excitement: Wall Street continues to applaud healthy report cards from Corporate America. Not only are the vast majority of companies beating earnings expectations, an impressive chunk are also exceeding revenue forecasts. That's a positive sign for the economy and stock prices.

Shares of Apple (AAPL, Tech30) jumped almost 3% after the world's largest company reported a quarterly jump in sales and profit. Investors largely overlooked a more cautious outlook for the current quarter, as well as slowing iPad sales.

PepsiCo (PE! P) also rallied nearly 3% after the food-and-beverage behemoth beat the Street and boosted its outlook for the year.

Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30) ticked higher as investors focused on the tech giant's revenue, which beat Wall Street's expectations.

The latest numbers from Delta Air Lines (DAL) should keep the airline's stock flying high. The carrier's shares ascended about 4% following strong earnings.

Apple & Microsoft: Both kicking butt   Apple & Microsoft: Both kicking butt

Dow Chemical (DOW) impressed investors by posting across-the-board sales growth and a slight earnings beat.

Boeing (BA) shares declined 2% after the jet maker reported a lower-than-expected revenue increase. On the upside, Boeing reported earnings that beat expectations and upped its outlook for the year.

4. Tech stock movers -- Intuitive Surgical, Biogen: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) raced 14% higher a day after the robotic surgery company posted profits and revenue that topped estimates, despite coming in lower than a year ago.

Biogen Idec (BIIB) provided a boost to the much-maligned biotech sector. Shares surged 11% after the drugmaker logged earnings and revenue that trounced expectations.

On the flip side, shares of Juniper Networks (JNPR) tumbled 10% after the networking-equipment company forecast soft earnings and revenue for the third quarter.

It's also been an ugly day for chip maker Xilinx (XLNX). The company's shares plummeted 16% on disappointing revenue and a gloomy outlook for the current quarter.

AT&T (T, Tech30) and Facebook (FB, Tech30) are scheduled to report after the closing bell.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

4 Hot Stocks to Trade (or Not)

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Put down the 10-K filings and the stock screeners. It's time to take a break from the traditional methods of generating investment ideas. Instead, let the crowd do it for you.

>>5 Dividend Stocks Ready to Pay You More

From hedge funds to individual investors, scores of market participants are turning to social media to figure out which stocks are worth watching. It's a concept that's known as "crowdsourcing," and it uses the masses to identify emerging trends in the market.

Crowdsourcing has long been a popular tool for the advertising industry, but it also makes a lot of sense as an investment tool. After all, the market is completely driven by the supply and demand, so it can be valuable to see what names are trending among the crowd.

While some fund managers are already trying to leverage social media resources like Twitter to find algorithmic trading opportunities, for most investors, crowdsourcing works best as a starting point for investors who want a starting point in their analysis. Today, we'll leverage the power of the crowd to take a look at some of the most active stocks on the market today.

>>5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts

These "most active" names are the most heavily traded names on the market -- and often, uber-active names have some sort of a technical or fundamental catalyst driving investors' attention on shares. And when there's a big catalyst, there's often a trading opportunity.

Without further ado, here's a look at today's stocks.

Steel Dynamics

Nearest Resistance: N/A

Nearest Support: $18.75

Catalyst: Severstal Columbus Acquisition

$4.3 billion steel producer Steel Dynamics (STLD) is up more than 5.8% as I write this afternoon, propelled higher by news that the firm would be acquiring the Columbus, Mississippi plant that previously belonged to Russian steel firm Severstal in a $1.625 billion deal. Not only does STLD gain the Columbus plant, but the arrangement also means an exit from the U.S. market for a big rival in OAO Severstal. The news is pushing shares of STLD to new highs this afternoon.

New highs are significant from an investor psychology standpoint because they mean that everyone who has bought shares in the last year is sitting on gains. As a result, the "back to even" mentality is less of a concern than it would be for a name with a higher proportion of shareholders sitting on losses. If you decide to buy here, keep a tight stop in place.

GoPro


Nearest Resistance: $44

Nearest Support: $36

Catalyst: Analyst Upgrade

Recent IPO GoPro (GPRO) is up 2.5% this afternoon, following an analyst upgrade that's spurring buying pressure in shares again. Piper Jaffray upgraded GoPro to overweight, putting a $48 price target on shares. That upside target price would put GPRO back up at its all-time high price set on its fourth trading session. For now, GPRO's short-lived chart is starting to look bullish again. Shares formed a rounding bottom in July, with a breakout level at $44. If shares can push through that nearby $44 price ceiling, then a test of $50 looks likely.

GPRO's recent IPO status makes it a volatile name. If you decide to take a position in this stock, be sure to keep a tight leash on it.

BB&T


Nearest Resistance: $40

Nearest Support: $37

Catalyst: Q2 Earnings

$27 billion regional bank BB&T (BBT) is down nearly 4% this afternoon -- its biggest single-day drop since 2012 -- following second-quarter earnings numbers that missed the mark. BB&T earned 58 cents per share for the quarter, falling well short of the 75-cent consensus profit estimate that Wall Street was looking for. The firm also announced that it the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development plans to audit the bank over sales of government-backed loans. The one-two punch of earnings and the audit news are the catalysts torpedoing BBT's share price.

Things don't look much better in the longer term. BBT has been forming a classic head and shoulders top for most of 2014, a bearish price setup that triggers on a violation of this stock's $37 neckline. Put simply, if BBT falls below $37, look out below.

CBS Outdoor Americas

Nearest Resistance: $35.50

Nearest Support: $31.50

Catalyst: Van Wagner Asset Purchase

Billboard advertising company CBS Outdoor Americas (CBSO) is up 3.5% this afternoon, boosted on high volume following news that the firm is acquiring advertising assets from Van Wagner Communications for $690 million in cash. The deal gives CBSO 1,100 large billboard displays spread across 11 U.S. markets. All together, those assets generated $206 million in revenues last year.

While CBSO's price history is limited, shares have been bouncing their way higher in a well-defined uptrending channel up until now. This is a "buy the dips stock" this summer -- but it makes sense to wait for the next dip.

To see these stocks in action, check out the at Most-Active Stocks portfolio on Stockpickr.



-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>4 Big Tech Stocks to Trade (or Not)



>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar



>>3 Big-Volume Stocks Poised for 52-Week Highs

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Sunday, July 20, 2014

Cynk Trading Halted By SEC After 'Potentially Manipulative Transactions'

Trading of Cynk Technology Corp. was halted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Friday after the stock jumped more than 100-fold in a month.

The stock skyrocketed to a market capitalization of more than $6 billion this week, even though the company has no revenue, no product, no assets and one employee.

In a press release announcing the move, the SEC said it called a halt to the trading “because of concerns regarding the accuracy and adequacy of information in the marketplace and potentially manipulative transactions in CYNK's common stock.”

An accompanying order from the regulator said trading is suspended until July 24. It says the company is incorporated in Nevada and lists a business address in Belize. Read the complete SEC order from here.

Our colleagues on the WSJ Digits blog this week chronicled a host of red flags that jump out of the company’s regulatory filings. Among them: the lack of revenue, a website that doesn’t exist, turnover in the CEO role, and a laughable business plan.

Yet shares of Cynk have emerged from penny-stock territory a month ago to trade above $20 per share on Thursday–catching the eye of investors…and, apparently, regulators.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Bank of America: ‘Noisy,’ ‘Messy’ Earnings Hit Shares

Messy and noisy. Those are the words used to describe Bank of America’s (BAC) financial results today–results which have sent the banking giant’s shares lower today. Bank of America also offered $13 billion to settle an investigation into its mortgage practices.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey’s Eric Wasserstrom and Jeff Cantwell sum up Bank of America’s earnings:

Bank of America reported 2Q14 EPS of $0.19 vs. our estimate of $0.11 and the consensus of $0.28; on a core basis, excluding litigation charges and other items, we calculate EPS of ~$0.40 vs. our $0.34 estimate. Similar to the past several periods, the quarter was characterized by improving fundamental performance, continued expansion in capital and liquidity ratios, and the settlement of outstanding mortgage-related legal issues. However, adjusting for the legal costs in 2Q, we believe there is likely downside to the 2014 EPS of $1.24, despite improved cost guidance (STRH $0.70); we remain Neutral.

Jefferies’ Ken Usdin and team use the word “messy” to describe Bank of America’s earnings:

Expenses pretty messy, but core result looks OK. Core expenses [ex. litigation, Legacy Asset Servicing (LAS), and 1Q retirement eligible comp costs] were $13.1B in 2Q vs. $13.6B last quarter. This is in line with our model, which is a good result considering I-banking and trading revenues were better than expected. We note that BAC now expects to achieve quarterly New Bank of America cost saves of $2.0B by 4Q14 (vs. mid-’15 previously), but quarterly LAS expense is now expected to decline to $1.1B by 1Q15 (vs. 4Q14 previously). Litigation expense ($4.0B vs. $6.0B in 1Q) remains a wildcard with the DOJ settlement still outstanding. Even with the AIG (AIG) settlement now past, color on the trajectory of legal costs going forward will be key on the call.

Citigroup’s Keith Horowitz and Michael Cronin like what they see beneath the noise in Bank of America’s financial results:

Relatively noisy quarter for Street to digest and with the stock up over past couple days, expect the stock to be a bit soft…but we believe the underlying results are very much on track, and would be buyers on any weakness today.

Shares of Bank of America have dropped 2.2% to $15.47 at 10:56 a.m. They had gained 2.8% this week heading into today following strong results from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C).

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Mondelez International Readies for Another Spinoff?

Source: Wikimedia Commons.

Fresh from calving off its coffee business, global snack-foods giant Mondelez International (NASDAQ: MDLZ  ) appears ready to slice up its operations once again. The Oreo cookies maker is separating its cheese and grocery units in Europe, allegedly preparing to ready them for a sale or spinoff as a freestanding company, obviously a result of the influence being exerted by billionaire shareholder Nelson Peltz. 

The activist investor has maintained steadfast conviction that snack foods are the growth industry of the future. Last year he took a sizable position in PepsiCo to advocate for a major shakeup of the soda company. He wanted the beverage giant to spin off or sell its soda division and use the proceeds from it to acquire Mondelez, which would then be melded with Pepsi's Frito-Lay. Management and the board resisted his overtures, though, and he subsequently gave up the acquisition aspects of his plan after he gained a seat on Mondelez's board of directors.

He's used that position as a bully pulpit to transform the company into a snack-foods pure play, and it was his fingerprints that were on the company's spinoff of its coffee business. In May, Mondelez announced that it was combining its coffee business with that of D.E. Master Blenders to create a new global pure-play coffee giant housing brands including Gevalia, Tassimo, Senseo, and the international business of Maxwell House. Now he's apparently readying the next stage of the transformation with the cheese and grocery realignment. 

Mondelez has the international business of Philadephia brand cream cheese that it received as a result of its spinoff from Kraft Foods two years ago, as well as Cheez Whiz, Miracle Whip, and Kraft Cheddar Cheese. The cheese and grocery division accounted for 8.5% of Mondelez's first-quarter revenues of $8.6 billion, while the European unit accounted for nearly half of it, or 4%.

Even though Mondelez's gum business continues to struggle, it comprises 13% of total revenues and is much closer to the sort of snack business Peltz and fellow activist investor Ralph Whitworth envision as the ideal composition for the company.

Still, not all analysts are convinced there will be a spinoff anytime soon, believing the snack-food company already has a lot of moving parts so that divesting the unit at this time will divert management's attention. The company itself says making the businesses separate units was decided upon back when it began the process of calving off coffee into the new Jacobs Douwe Egberts, but whether that means it plans on spinning off cheese and grocery, too, it doesn't say, preferring not to comment on speculation.

When the coffee sale was announced, Mondelez International's stock jumped, pushing it to new record levels. I thought investors would be best served waiting until all the activity settled down before taking a stake, because it was going for a premium valuation. I think that still holds true despite the latest speculation, and the market seems to agree, as the initial spike it registered following publication of the report has calmed down and the stock remains about where it was beforehand.

While snack food itself is a growth opportunity, consumers are looking for more than just junk food to nosh on. Better-for-you snack foods is where the real opportunity lies, and Mondelez International could be a stock that's worth snacking on if it seizes it.

Apple is ready to take more than just a nibble with its next smart device
Apple recently recruited a secret-development "dream team" to guarantee that its newest smart device was kept hidden from the public for as long as possible. But the secret is out, and some early viewers are even claiming that its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts that 485 million of these devices will be sold per year. But one small company makes this gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and to see Apple's newest smart gizmo, just click here!

Monday, July 14, 2014

Apollo slammed on education department review

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Shares of Apollo Education Group fell sharply after the market close after the company disclosed the U.S. Education Dept. plans a review of federal financial aid programs at the company's University of Phoenix.

Shares of Apollo (APOL)  fell more than 5% in late trading. Apollo said the review will look at the financial aid for 2012-2014. The review was disclosed in a regulatory filing with the SEC.

For-profit education companies such as Apollo have come under increased scrutiny in recent years. Last week Corinthian Colleges (COCO)   said it will sell 85 campuses and wind down 12 other schools, in the wake of legal and financial troubles.

Banking stocks are also in focus as earnings season hits its stride.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)   and Goldman Sachs Group (GS)  , both Dow components, are slated to report results Tuesday. Both stocks rose Monday after Citigroup (C)   reported its results Monday and said it had reached a $7 billion settlement over claims related to Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities. Why Cii's $7 billion mortgage settlement may help borrowers

Few major companies are reporting after Monday's bell. Results are expected from Destiny Media Technologies (DSNY)  , Stanley Furniture Co. (STLY)   and Peregrine Pharmaceuticals. (PPHM)  .

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Making sure politicians make good on campaign promises? There's an app for that

fernando haddad Mayor Fernando Haddad of São Paulo will be closely monitored by a team using the new Promise Tracker app. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) Politicians make endless promises on the campaign trail.

A new app launching in Brazil called Promise Tracker aims to keep them honest.

If a politician promised to fix a city's streets, for instance, a citizen could go to the Promise Tracker website and create a survey asking fellow citizens about road conditions. Respondents could use the mobile app to take photos of potholes and to map their location with GPS technology.

The idea behind Promise Tracker is that your civic duty hasn't been fulfilled once you've hit the ballot box -- it's just begun.

"With democracy, we're really good at mobilizing people to get out and vote for elections, but there's a huge drop off in engagement after the elections are over," said Rahul Bhargava, research specialist at MIT's Center for Civic Media and project manager of Promise Tracker.

The project is the brainchild of Ethan Zuckerman, director of MIT's Civic Media Center.

He's been carrying out experiments using mobile phones to transform citizens from merely informed to active monitors.

Promise Tracker will be piloted this fall in the Brazilian cities of São Paulo and Belo Horizonte. São Paulo is the perfect city to test out Promise Tracker -- it was the first city in Brazil to pass a law that mandates that its mayors list and publish campaign promises and term objectives within 90 days of taking office.

Dozens of other Brazilian cities have followed suit.

Promise Tracker will be put in the hands of the 1,150 counselors tasked with monitoring the progress of each pledge.

Rede Nossa São Paulo (Our São Paulo Network), a network of over 700 organizations working to promote sustainable development in the city, was behind the push for the legislation and will be a part of Promise Tracker's monitoring of São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad.

Oded Grajew, founder of Rede Nossa São Paulo, says that previously, voting for elected officials in the country had been more based on candidates kissing babies than their track records.

"In Brazil, as in other countries, politicians are in the service of! those who fund their campaigns," said Grajew. "This is no good for development, fixing inequality or improving public services, which are very bad here."

Promise Tracker has already generated interest from other countries and the MIT team plans to create a web and mobile app system that cities around the world can customize according to their needs.

"Our goal is not to criticize the government, but rather provide residents and politicians with the proper tools to understand the local context, make informed decisions, and transform their cities into better spaces for all," said Leo Burd, a São Paulo native and consultant for MIT on the Promise Tracker project.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) News Ahead of Second Quarter Earnings (INTC & NVDA)

Its worth taking a closer look at the latest news about chip stock Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NYSE: AMD) from the past few weeks as the company is set to report earnings on Thursday after the market closes plus take a look at the stock's performance verses that of other chip stocks like Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA). I should mention that we had an open position in Advanced Micro Devices in our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) portfolio from last summer up until late January when we locked in a small loss. Since our SCN EO is a trading portfolio rather than a long term buy and hold portfolio, we got out as AMD shares sank yet again after the company reported earnings (something that also happened after the last three previous earnings reports). However, we have recently got back into Advanced Micro Devices because the company continues to perform well with the technological advances and changes occurring – especially in the gaming space, they should be well positioned for forward growth in the quarters ahead. With that in mind, here is a quick look at some important recent news about AMD before it reports earnings next week:

Back-to-School Technology Usage Survey. On Thursday, Advanced Micro Devices announced the results of its national Back-to-School Technology Usage Survey of college-bound students about their technology preferences and purchase habits. The survey revealed that laptops are the device of choice among US college students aged 18 to 26 with 85% owning one, outnumbering smartphone owners and more than double the reported number of tablet owners. When asked to rank various items in order of importance, 41% of students said their laptop was their most important possession followed by their car, tablet, bicycle and television. Interestingly enough, only 1% prioritize their television as 73% report that they use other devices more than a TV (including laptops) to watch television shows and videos. More than half of students surveyed also plan to buy new technology before heading back to college in the fall and one third said having a new laptop at the top of their list, beating out tablets and 2-in-1s as their computing form factor of choice. Pacific Crest Downgrads AMD and NVDA. In June, shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia were falling after research firm Pacific Crest downgraded the stocks, saying that they will be hurt by weak PC sales. Specifically, Pacific Crest analyst Michael McConnell said that the number of computers sold is likely to drop 5%-10% next quarter due to weak consumer demand and excess inventory. About 45% of AMD's chips are incorporated into consumer desktops, while less than 5% of them are used in corporate PCs. In addition, notebook manufacturers had reported that AMD is losing share to Intel in notebooks that cost less than $399. Hence, McConnell downgraded AMD and Nvidia to Underperform from Sector Perform and kept a $35 price target and Outperform rating on Intel. He also stated that Nvidia is better positioned as it has less exposure to desktop PCs and benefits more from strong corporate PC demand than AMD. Share Performance. Advanced Micro Devices is up 11.4% since the start of the year, up 5.4% over the past year and up 22.9% over the past five years. Here is a look at Advanced Micro Devices' performance verses that of Intel Corporation and NVIDIA Corporation:

Finally, here are the latest technical charts for chip stocks Advanced Micro Devices, Intel Corporation and NVIDIA Corporation:

SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) has an open position in AMD. To find out what other open positions SCN EO currently has, and to learn why so many traders and investors are relying on this premium subscription service, click here to find out more.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Candy Crush almost sweetens Wall Street

Candy Crush maker wins Wall Street points   Candy Crush maker wins Wall Street points NEW YORK (CNNMoney) It almost looked like "The Return of the KING" on Wall Street Monday.

Almost.

Candy Crush saga has entranced everyone from British actresses to New York Times columnists. But investors never bought into its "delicious" rewards.

King Digital Entertainment (KING), the parent company that makes Candy Crush, sold its stock for the first time to the public in late March at $22.50 a share with a lot of fanfare. People dressed as the company's infamous candies danced around the New York Stock Exchange.

The ideal scenario -- for a stock to bounce on the day of its initial public offering (IPO) like GoPro (GPRO) -- never happened. King tanked, ending its first day of trading at $19 and still hasn't fully recovered.

Things finally seemed to be turning around for King in July. Last week the stock hit the IPO price for the first time, and the stock even opened above $23 Monday.

A report from Piper Jaffray had upgraded the stock to "overweight," the investment bank's top grade for shares.

return of the king 2

"We are upgrading King and raising our price target to $28 (from $19)," the report said.

The big concern about King is that it's a one-game wonder. After all, what other well-recognized game does the company have beyond Candy Crush?

But Piper Jaffray is optimistic. The research note points out two of the company's games, Pet Rescue and Farm Heroes, have both stayed in the top 15 highest grossing iPhone apps for the past six months. And the next big thing for King could also be here soon.

"We expect Candy Crush Soda, slated for launch later this year, will prove to be a catalyst for KING shares," the report said. While the Soda game could "cannibalize" players from the original Candy Crush series, it could become just as big and keep players engaged.

The enthusiasm from Piper Jaffray comes on the heels of a similar report last week from JP Morgan that p! ointed out the company's fat cash cushion and its growth potential.

The shine from the positive reports didn't last long, though.

By Monday afternoon, King stock was back below $21.

Monday, July 7, 2014

ON THE MARKET - On Going Parabolic

Pre-market –Monday – 7-7-2014

"The just price is the price established by the 'common estimation' [17] of buyers and sellers."

~ Saint Thomas Aquinas ~

1225 -1274

Dr. John L. Faessel

ON THE MARKET

Commentary and Insights

Quote's of the day

"Experience has shown that even under the best forms of government

those entrusted with power have, in time, and by slow operations,

perverted into tyranny."

~ Thomas Jefferson ~

&

"So sue me"

~ Obama ~

Re his use of executive actions to act without Congress

&

"We've unmasked madmen wielding scepters"

~ Sherlock Holmes ~

~~~~~~

·The stock market is advancing on a broad front - but, but, but …

·Technical picture suggests higher prices - but, but, but …

·The unemployment number of 6.1% was exceptional - but, but, but …

·The world's central banks have it all figured out - but, but, but ...

·Everyone's bullish; happy, happy - but, but, but ...

MARKET

Going Parabolic

Momentum rules: The long term trend remains UP and the short term trend is UP. The McClellan Oscillator (my favorite overbought and oversold indicator) remains in neutral where it has been since late January. (I believe this neutral stance, neither overbought or oversold, caused much by healthy rotation has contributed to the outstanding advance in the market.)

However

Stock markets are extended and there are a declining number of Dow components participating in the uptrend and the indicator now demonstrates a fall below its 15-day moving average. The Nasdaq 100 Index is making new multi-year bull marklet highs, levels however the average component stock in that index is down 7% from its trailing 52-week high.

(SPX) Stochastics are overbought with the SlowK at 93.74 and the Fast K at 98.73.

On Valuations

Scary Comparisons

Click hyperlinks for charts

1.Thursday's forward P/E on the S& P 500 (SPX) moved up to 15.68 from a recent low of 14.4 on February 3. That's a new high for the bull market, and the highest since June 20, 2005.

2.The Shiller P/E Ratio was only higher in 1929, 2000 and 2007. (price to earnings ratio based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years)

3.The total market capitalization to GDP ratio.. ( "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" - Warren Buffet) was only higher in 2000

4.Tobin's Q Ratio (the ratio of the market's price to replacement costs)was only higher in 2000

Further distorting valuationsand stock "prices " is that since March 2009 the bull market in the S&P 500 (SPX) has been marked by corporations massively buying back their shares and paying out dividends. From Q1-2009 through Q1-2014, S&P 500 companies repurchased $1.9 trillion of their shares and paid out $1.3 trillion in dividends. During the Q1 of this year, buybacks totaled $637 billion at an annual rate, nearly matching the previous record high during Q3-2007.

A Notable quote: "Based on valuation measures most reliably associated with actual subsequent market returns, we presently estimate negative total returns for the S&P 500 on every horizon of 7 years and less, with 10-year nominal total returns averaging just 1.9% annually. I should note that in real-time, the same valuation approach allowed us to identify the 2000 and 2007 extremes, provided latitude for us to shift to a constructive stance near the start of the intervening bull market in 2003, and indicated the shift to undervaluation in late 2008 and 2009." (see Setting the Record Straight). John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
June 2, 2014

Lots on Unemployment

The U.S. created 288,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 6.3%,. That's the lowest jobless rate since September 2008. Analysts had expected an increase of 210,000.

However:

There's a "Jobs Gap"! Each month, The Hamilton Project examines the "jobs gap," which is the number of jobs that the U.S. economy needs to create in order to return to pre-recession employment levels while also absorbing the people who enter the labor force each month. As of the end of June 2014, our nation faces a jobs gap of 6.8 million jobs.

If the economy adds about 208,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate for the best year of job creation in the 2000s, then it will take until July 2018 to close the jobs gap. Given a more optimistic rate of 321,000 jobs per month, which was the average monthly rate of the best year of job creation in the 1990s, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by September 2016.

While the U.S. created 288,000 jobs the broader unemployment measure, U-6, barely budged, at 12.4%. The labor force participation rate remained stuck at a 36-year low of 62.8%. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons rose by 275,000. Part-time work jumps in June by 799,000 - the largest one-month gain since January 1994. (The standard deviation is 287,000) At the same time, there was a 523,000-person drop in full-time workers, the first decline since October.

Employed persons at work part time:

·Part time involuntarily +275k

·Because hours cut back +72k

·Because that's all they could find +111k

·Part time voluntarily +840k

So, if we really created 288k jobs. And 275k were made involuntarily part-time, then this suggests that there are still way more candidates than there are openings.

The Economic Policy Institute economist Ms. Heidi Shierholz estimates that "even if we saw June's rate of job growth every month from here on out, we still wouldn't get back to health in the labor market for another two and a half years." … Link here for missing worker detail.

Re; "Missing Workers", potential workers who, because of weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking a job. In other words, these are people who would be either working or looking for work if job opportunities were significantly stronger.

As of June 2014 5.98 mil (*roughly half of that number are of prime working age. Unemployment rate if you add those missing workers back into the labor force: 9.6%. Compare that number to the official rate of 6.1%.

A Notable quote:

"Curb your enthusiasm … the year-over-year acceleration is still small — arguing that this has been catch-up. Hours worked and average hourly earnings do not imply much momentum for the economy … the household report tells us that more than all the net job gains this month were part-time jobs, as full-time jobs dropped by 700,000."

Robert Brusca, Chief economist at FAO Economics

A culprit; Remember ObamaCare aka the Affordable Care Act?Small employers are opting out to get around the 50-person work requirement by replacing full-time workers with part-timers. Recall the lefties said that wouldn't happen… Really?

Earnings expectations are likewise plunging In Europe.

The estimates for 2014 and 2015 are down 7.0% and 5.0% ytd

Global Debt Running Amuck

In the annual report of the Bank for International Settlements, [BIS](the bank fo

Will Growth Accelerate?

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U.S. employers added 288,000 jobs in June, according to the jobs report released Thursday. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent, its lowest level since September 2008.

This was the fifth consecutive month that new jobs exceeded 200,000, the first such period since the late 1990s. As the economic recovery heads into its sixth year, evidence of a strengthening labor market raises hopes for annualized 3 percent-plus growth over the rest of 2014, after the first quarter’s sharp decline of 2.9 percent.

However, the U.S. economy has yet to record even one full year of 3 percent growth in the current recovery. In a world of lackluster economic growth, where can you find companies with new products or services that can generate much more rapid gains of revenues and earnings?

In our view, one of the first areas to look at should be companies that develop, produce and market new drugs and therapies that are life-saving and life-enhancing.

Many companies in the biotechnology/specialty pharmaceuticals industries are generating annual profit increases of 15-25 percent and more at a time when the other companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 are struggling to grow 5 percent.

These bio/pharma companies are benefiting from increased drug approvals, new-product launches and promising pipelines. Over the next few years, we’re likely to see blockbuster products being approved for cancer, heart disease, hepatitis, diabetes, eye disease and more.

The Food and Drug Administration approved 39 drugs in 2012, the most in 16 years, and then another 27 in 2013. Much of the surge in new drug approvals stems from advances in “biologics.” These are manufactured from a living cell to create a complex mixture of molecules. A traditional prescription drug is typically made by combining chemical ingredients.

In the Feb. 26, 2014 issue of Personal Finance, I profiled 10! “Healthy Drug Stocks to Buy or Watch.” I advised: “As a group, the growth companies should continue to outperform the broad market over the next five years. Stock-price appreciation likely will be driven more by revenues, earnings and cash flow than the expansion of price/earnings (P/E) multiples.”

Following big gains, most of the stocks were expensive. Indeed, all 10 were trading above my recommended buy limits at the time of publication.

However, this reflected the fact that the stocks generally had run up in anticipation of earnings growth that was only just starting to accelerate. Those gains also made the stocks vulnerable to a price pullback in either the broad market or that sector. And that’s what happened over six weeks in March and April.

During that early-spring downturn, seven of the 10 stocks fell below the recommended buy limits specified in PF. Six of the seven now are higher than the buy limits. The three stocks that didn’t fall far enough now are higher than even their February levels. 

Here are the details:

146.34

 

2/26/14 Price

Buy Advice

Low Price

7/2/14 Price

Alexion Pharma. (NSDQ: ALXN)

182.57     

>146   

136.37  

164.22

Allergan (NYSE: AGN)

127.25     

>114   

115.94  

170.55

Amg! en Inc. (! NSDQ: AMGN)           

123.68     

>118   

109.41  

121.03

Biogen Idec (NSDQ: BIIB)

343.21

>293   

272.02  

331.00

Celgene Corp. (NSDQ: CELG)

79.99  

>78.75      

66.85    

90.07

Gilead Sciences (NSDQ: GILD)

83.81        

>82      

63.50    

87.10

Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO)

46.26        

>39      

42.08    

46.43

Regeneron Pharma. (NSDQ: REGN)

336.48     

>277   

273.23  

308.54

Shire plc (NSDQ: SHPG)

168.81     

>140   

141.66  

237.23

Valeant Pharma. Int’l (NYSE: VRX)

>146   

115.14  

126.00

What’s more, earnings estimates for 2014 by Wall Street analysts have increased for seven of the 10 companies over the last three months. Amgen’s are down slightly and those for Celgene and Novo Nordisk are unchanged.

Two of the 10 stocks currently are in the PF Growth Portfolio. Another, Allergan, was sold for a 75 percent long-term gain since its initial recommendation.

As of late February, the 10 stocks profiled carried market capitalizations of roughly $30 billion and up. Here are another four companies to watch: Grifols SA (NSDQ: GRFS), Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC (NSDQ: JAZZ), Questcor Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: QCOR) and Salix Pharmaceuticals (NSDQ: SLXP). Each of these four companies is generating rapid revenue and profit growth, and each stock carries a market capitalization of $5 billion or more.

Have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend!

Saturday, July 5, 2014

4 Things You Didn't Know About Wills - But Should

Writing a last will and testament Alamy Most people know that if you care who gets your assets after you die, you should create a will setting out your intentions. Let's look now at several important aspects about wills that a surprisingly large number of people don't know. 1. Even in the Electronic Age, You Must Still Follow Formalities The laws covering wills are some of the oldest on the books in most states, and one common complaint is that they've failed to keep up with the times. In an era of mobile devices and electronic documents where paper confirmation is becoming less prevalent, creating a will that a court will treat as valid still requires that you follow those often-antiquated laws precisely. The key element in most states is that you have to sign the will in the presence of witnesses, who then will have the duty of testifying in probate court after your death that the will was validly signed. In some states, having those witnesses' signatures notarized makes it a self-proving will, eliminating the requirement of witness testimony to prove validity. In a limited number of cases, wills that are entirely handwritten can be valid without witnesses, but the requirements differ from state to state and are often full of traps for the unwary. The smartest thing to do is to look up witness requirements and follow them to the letter. 2. You Might Need a Will Even If You're Poor Many younger couples never think to create a will because they figure that with few or no assets, they don't have anything to leave. But if you're a parent, your will is typically the place where you'll name the person you'd like to take care of your children if something happens to you. If you don't choose a guardian, then a judge will decide. 3. Didn't Update Your Will? The Law Might Do It for You Often, when major life events happen -- such as marriage, divorce, the birth of a child or the death of a close family member -- people neglect to update wills and other estate planning documents. That can lead to undesirable results in some cases, and because of that, laws in some states will effectively rewrite your will for you even if you deliberately choose to do nothing. For instance, if you get married and don't update your will, the law in many states will grant your spouse a share of your estate at your death. Similar provisions protect children who are born after the date of an existing will, with the law assuming that you would ordinarily choose to provide for your closest family members. That makes it important that if you don't want those provisions to take effect, you must update your will and estate-planning documents after major life events take place. 4. Your Will Can't Control Who Gets Certain Assets Many people believe that if they have a will, it will cover all of their property. But many exceptions exist. The most common are accounts that require you to name a beneficiary, including life insurance policies and individual retirement accounts and 401(k) accounts. If you don't change your beneficiary by contacting the financial providers on those accounts, changing your will won't have any impact on where those assets go after your death. Similarly, if you own property in joint tenancy with rights of survivorship, then the other person listed as your co-owner will receive that property at your death regardless of what your will says. Your will is an essential tool in making sure that your property goes to the people you want to receive it after your death. By keeping these simple facts in mind, you can use this tool more effectively and avoid the mistakes that can cause huge problems down the road. More from Dan Caplinger
•It's Summer, and Scammers Are Calling Seniors •You Won't Like What the Supreme Court Just Did to Your IRA •5 Summer Tax Breaks You Should Know About

Friday, July 4, 2014

Asia stocks lifted by strength in U.S. jobs data

Asian stocks rose Friday following an upbeat employment report in the U.S.

Japan's Nikkei 225 (JP:NIK) rose 0.6% to 15,437.13, closing at a fresh five-month high. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (AU:XJO)  rose 0.6% to 5,525.00 Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (HK:HSI)  edged up 0.1% to 23,546.36.

Click to Play 'No North Korean nukes' say China, South Korea

China's President Xi Jinping and South Korea's President Park Geun-Hye wrapped up a two-day state visit in Seoul. The WSJ's Ramy Inocencio speaks with Yongsei University's Chung-in Moon about a free-trade deal and North Korean denuclearization.

A thinly traded session ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday kept price gains in check. More action was seen in the region's currency markets, with the Malaysian ringgit jumping to its highest this year following a strong exports report.

The currency climbed as much as 0.4% to touch 3.1790 against the dollar, its strongest since Nov. 20. It was trading at 3.1850 late in the Asian day.

Data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed U.S. employers added 288,000 jobs in June, exceeding the 215,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly fell to 6.1% in June from 6.3% a month earlier.

The rosy report sent U.S. stocks to another record high for the year, lifting the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) above 17000 for the first time. The Dow closed up 0.5% at 17,068.26 while the broader S&P 500 (SPX) rose 0.5% to 1,985.44, its 25th record high of 2014.

Fiona Law contributed to this article.

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Wednesday, July 2, 2014

A Slippery Slope for Crude Exports Ban

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Of all the hazards the oil refining industry routinely deals with, the sentiment of its investors may be the most volatile.

That was on display again last week when refining shares tanked on the news that the US government had reinterpreted a longstanding ban on crude exports to enable the routine shipping overseas of the ultralight crude known as oil condensate after minimal processing.

Condensate is a less dense, more volatile variety of oil that typically exists as gas within the reservoir but condenses into a liquid at the lower surface pressure and temperature. On the API gravity scale of density, condensate is generally anything above 45 degrees, though definitions vary. Gasoline is 50 degrees, and in the aggregate the condensate produced in the US is likely a bit lighter than that. Condensate has on occasion been poured straight into the gas tank of a car, though I would not recommend it.

Oil condensate accounted for 15 percent of the booming US crude production from shale last year thanks to its prevalence in the rapidly developing Eagle Ford basin, where it makes up half of the current output. It’s also the fastest growing component of the shale production surge.  US condensate output increased 32 percent in 2013, though growth is expected to moderate to 17 percent this year and 7 percent in 2015. (All of the numbers and the forecast from the US Energy Information Administration.)

 MLP1

That means as much as 1.2 million barrels per day of domestic oil concentrate supply by now. (Some private estimates are significantly lower.) And though condensate is easier to process into fuel than heavier crudes, its energy content is also lower, making it less attractive to refineries.

That’s especially true for US refineries upgra! ded over the years to process the heavier imported crude. For them, condensate is a suboptimal input. To the degree that they want it at all, it’s for mixing with heavier crude to save money. But as the next chart shows refiners’ interest in condensate simply hasn’t kept up with its profusion.

MLP2

Source: company presentation

Other estimates of the condensate discount are less dramatic.  EAI, an energy consultancy based in Colorado, pegs the past month’s discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $6.60 to $11. 60, depending on density. That’s comparable to the markdowns on light, sweet Bakken crude, and certainly won’t discourage further drilling in the Eagle Ford’s condensate window.

With the rate of increase in concentrate production probably peaking and additional processing capacity only starting to come online, it’s no surprise the Commerce Department advised Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) and Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE: EPD) that they could export condensate after minimal field distillation.

This is holding action trying to avert a bigger condensate glut, and the risk that even deeper discounts will discourage further drilling. Drillers will benefit to the degree that they can get better prices on some of their surplus overseas — perhaps at Asian petrochemical refining plants. 

But refiners aren’t likely to miss the exported condensate given that production is still growing briskly and especially in light of the fact that their indifference dictated the discount on the stuff in the first place.

The bigger risk to the refining industry is that the same minimal processing for export loophole could be expanded to include other grades of crude, as government sources told Reuters late last week. That could continue to erode the recently s! hrunken d! iscount on domestic grades of crude relative to the international benchmarks.   

In an ideal world, the crude export ban, a relic of the 1970s oil shocks, would disappear quickly in its entirety as an ineffectual and counterproductive regulation. Rather than keeping US fuel costs low it mostly lifts refiners’ margins at the expense of drillers.

Refiners have lobbied to keep the restriction in place, and any politician promoting crude exports risks blame for gas pump prices no matter what they are down the line. That’s why the Obama Administration was at pains last week to present its advisory letters as continuing a longstanding policy. The export bottleneck is a long way from being gone.

And once it does go, whether all at once or through a series of incremental changes, investors are likely to discover that US refiners won’t fall apart as a result. They will still enjoy steadily expanding access to the cheap heavy crudes pouring out of Canada, along with cheap natural gas, the most efficient and advanced plants in the world and proximity to the fast-growing Latin American market.

MLP3

In the wake of the decision last week, there was speculation that the new rules might derail a panoply of crude processing projects planned for the Gulf Coat. More probably, the gush of Eagle Ford crude will require a variety of processing solutions so long these remain an export requirement.

Exports of crude to Canada are already permitted, and picking up pace, yet they’re dwarfed by exports of refined fuel, primarily to Latin America. Refiners don’t need Eagle Ford condensate to prosper. They only need their geographical and economic advantages over foreign rivals. These are likely to survive while the domestic crude supply is growing strongly, even if some of it is shipped abroad in its natural state.